Christopher Ellis · Columbus, OH

The builder behind the probabilities

Analytics engineering and product analytics leader with 10+ years across games, social platforms, insurance, and finance — currently a Senior Data Scientist at Epic Games on Fortnite Discovery. Data Investors is the nights-and-weekends proof of how I like to build: end to end, tested, and honest about its own performance.

Data foundations people trust

At Epic Games I'm the sole data scientist for Fortnite Discover — the surface where millions of daily players find what to play next. I own its analytics data models end to end: a dbt-on-Databricks architecture that turns raw event telemetry into tested source, staging, fact, and aggregate layers, with incremental rebuild macros, daily data-quality checks, and Airflow orchestration. The habit transfers: this site runs on the same layered, tested pattern, one Postgres warehouse instead of a lakehouse.

Trusted foundations also mean hunting the silent failures — at Epic I uncovered production defects that had been NULLing key columns for weeks and codified the telemetry caveats that keep biased metrics out of product decisions.

Rigor that changes decisions

Numbers only matter when they move a decision. At Rec Room, my user-level LTV models showed non-mobile players were worth 3–8x more than mobile — leadership pivoted the platform strategy. My geo-lift testing exposed attribution gaps understating ad ROAS by ~4x, and the CEO restarted paid acquisition. At Meta's Horizon Worlds, showing that a day-one social connection made users 5.6x more likely to retain through day 28 helped redefine the product's target metrics.

The same discipline runs through my experimentation work: sample-ratio-mismatch checks, A/A gates, exposure-semantics validation — the boring machinery that keeps false lift signals out of ship decisions.

Storytelling execs actually use

From board-level financial models that helped raise $350M+ at Root Insurance, to executive dashboards and custom analytical tooling at Epic, Rec Room, and Meta (Tableau, Hex, Sigma, Plotly-style web tooling), I build the artifact the audience needs — not the one the tool defaults to. This site is exhibit A: every chart on the preview pages was designed to make a probability, its base rate, and its track record readable at a glance.

AI-assisted, bias to action

At Epic I built an AI-assisted analytics system — versioned domain skills, 37 canonical metric contracts, multi-agent investigation workflows, and evaluation harnesses that regression-test the system itself. This platform is the personal-scale version of the same conviction: its 2026 rebuild — scrapers, warehouse, models, and this site — was executed in days, not months, using agentic AI workflows with 200+ automated tests as the safety net. Iteration beats perfection, provided the tests are the ones deciding.

One question, nightly

Every model answers the same auditable question — how likely is a barrier hit within the window? — and publishes the probability, not a story.

Discipline over drama

Publish-dated joins, walk-forward retraining, out-of-time grading. The backtest can't cheat, so the live numbers get to mean something.

Built end to end

Scrapers, warehouse, models, and this site are one person's stack — which is exactly why every number on it can be traced to its source.